长江口越江工程桥隧方案比选风险评估

陶履彬¹      张奎鸿²      汪炳鑑鑑³

（同济大学¹上海市公路处²  同济大学）

   摘 要：风险分析是项目风险管理系统的主要组成部分，是一门针对特定客观情况下、特定期间内，某一事件的实际发生结果与预期产生差异、甚至相反结果的可能性进行研究的学科。对大型工程进行风险分析在国内尚属起步阶段。本项研究针对上海市崇明越范通道东线线位走向、越江方式诸方案为目标，就技术的可行性和工程的可造性方面进行风险分析，帮助设计、建造单位充分了解工程面临的风险，用经济有效的方法制定相应对策，并推荐出最适当的、风险较小的规划线南隧北桥方案。

  关键词：风险、风险评估、规划线、比较线、桥梁工程、盾构隧道工程

Risk Analysis of the Bridge Scheme and Tunnel Scheme  for the

Yangtze River Crossing Project at the Yangtze River Delta

                        Tao Lue-bing      Zhang Kui-hong   Wang Bing-jian

Abstract: Risk analysis is one important part of the risk management system of a project. It is a discipline that studies the possibility of the difference between the reality and expectation, or even the possibility of the occurrence of an opposite result of expectation for a given event under a given condition within a given time-span. At present, it is at the beginning stage in China that risk analysis is introduced into large-scale project such as the Yangtze River Crossing Project. This paper deals with the technical flexibility and practical construction flexibility of several options on site selection and river crossing scheme. The fruit what the research bears shall enable the design institute and construction contractor to understand the risk what the project will face and make out corresponding policy and the fittest options of least risk that this paper recommend is: integration scheme of bridge across northern river and tunnel across southern river for the planning route.

Key Words: Risk Analysis, Planning route comparison route Bridge Engineering Shield Tunneling