公路投资项目风险分析与评价

冷兆华  林航飞

(同济大学)

摘 要:通常公路项目投资比较大、寿命期长，并且存在一些不确定性。在公路项目投资前项目评价时，考虑项目风险是很有必要的。本文构建了一个基于风险分析的公路项目评价模型，对现有的公路项目评价模型进行修正，采用层次分析法（AHP）标定模型中的权重参数，及蒙特卡洛模拟技术模拟计算公路投资项目可行性研究评价指标的概率分布。这样可以更加客观地、合理地判断公路项目在经济上的可行性。

关键词:公路投资项目；风险评价；层次分析法；蒙特卡洛模拟技术。

Risk Analysis and Evaluation of Highway Investment Project

Leng Zhao- hua   Lin Hang- fei

 Abstract: Generally, there are big investment, long life time and some uncertainty on highway project. It is essential to consider the risk in project evaluation before investing highway project. Based risk analysis in this paper, we established a highway project evaluation model to correct existed highway project evaluation model, used analytic hierarchy process to demarcate weigh parameter in this model, and introduced Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate the probability distribution of evaluation indexes in highway investment project feasibility study. So we can judge the economic feasibility of highway project more impersonally and reasonably.

Key words: Highway Investment Project; Risk Analysis; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Monte Carlo Simulation。